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What a Phinish! (and Thursday Night Prognostication)

November 16th, 2009 at 10:22 pm

It is hard for me to get too excited about needing a last minute drive to beat the Bucs by two points, BUT it is the NFL and you take what you can get.  I was actually so unexcited about the win that I had to get a friend (thanks Rob!) to come up with a clever title.  A win over any team is exciting and an accomplishment.  Just ask the Saints who

Dolphins vs. Bucs

nearly escaped the St. Louis Steven Jackson’s and the once undefeated Broncos who fell to the once totally defeated Redskins.

The Tampa game showed a lot of glaring weaknesses in the Dolphins that will hopefully be mended by Thursday in Carolina.  The defensive line pressured Freeman in the first half of Sunday’s game, but seemed to avoid him like the swine flu in the second half.  With Jake Delhomme playing well it will be important that Porter (who should be rested after not playing last week), Taylor and gang put in a full 60 minutes.  Sean Smith gave up a big play to Stovall this week that put the Bucs right back into the game.  Like I say every week, it will be important that our secondary limit Carolina’s big play ability and keep the ball in front of them.  Henne made his first “rookie mistake”, which should have cost Miami the game.  He more than made up for his errant throw with a poised drive with just over a minute left in the fourth quarter against a defense that doesn’t reflect the team’s poor record.  Henne should continue is streak of solid play, but watch out for the rookie “what in the world was he thinkings”.  The most significant weakness is Miami’s abysmal play in the fourth quarter.  The Dolphins boast the worst points for/against ratio in the fourth quarter and are lucky to have four wins based on this statistic alone.  I highly doubt conditioning is an issue under a Sparano/Parcells regime.  Do offenses find glaring holes in the Miami defense in the first three quarters?  Is the young secondary susceptible to being “set-up” throughout the game and exposed late?

From where I’m sitting, Thursday night’s game has two main points of emphasis.  The first is that Carolina and Miami are both 4-5.  Loser is out of the playoff hunt barring a late season run of six straight wins (very unlikely for both squads).  The winner reaches .500 and is in the wild card hunt.  Both teams look like playoff teams on the rise for one quarter and bottom dwellers the next.  The winner of Thursday’s game will have to play consistently from start to finish.  The second point is the Dolphin’s loss of Ronnie Brown.  The NFL network may be disappointed to see a gimpy

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Miami Dolphins

version of the wildcat unless Pat White and Ricky Williams are prepared to carry the load.  My guess is we will see the wildcat, but more in the form of a gimmick to soften Carolina’s D than as a staple.

The best aspect of the game in Carolina is that it is against a surging squad on the road without the top offensive threat.  How is this the best aspect?  This game is essentially a practice wild card game (I realize the Panthers are in the NFC, but they are a wild card caliber team) and should be played as a must win.  If the phins win, it will mean Chad Henne played lights out and the supporting cast stepped up.  It will also mean an extended week of rest and an added boost of confidence for a late run.  If they lose, it’s time to start the try outs for next year’s squad.

Comments
  • Ian Jewett
    I'm glad he's still alive too after that first half. Bright future ahead for the Bucs though it may take a few years. Also glad to hear from a Falcons fan that the Panthers may not be as great as all the broadcasters are saying. Should be a great game on Thursday.
  • David
    Buc fan is happy our top draft pick is still intact.
  • Rob Niemeyer
    Thanks for the shout out! At any rate, you make some interesting points. It looked like Ricky Williams was ready to take the load, at least in the final drive on Sunday. A short week may be an issue though, so that will be fun to watch. Watching the Panthers last week I would say you may be better off than you think. The Falcons had a back up RB who is a very far cry from Ricky Williams and he still made an impact after Turner's injury. Before Turner went down, he had 111 yards on 9 carries which is just nasty. If the fish can have that success not to worry. Plus, Delhomme is a mess and Steve Smith is seemingly afraid to catch the ball and hit pay dirt. Although their records are the same, the Dolphins seem to be enough ahead that a victory is in sight.
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